"IN THE BEGINNING..... everything was even money."
I know what you are thinking. That's a strange way to begin a chapter targeted to readers who seek to play poker seriously. I read your mind, right? Get used to it. You are looking at my most famous quote, so let me explain why it is an important starting point.
The main skill that successful people possess is the ability to closely estimate their chances in life. The main skill that winning poker players possess is the ability to closely estimate their chances of winning a poker hand or making a profit in a poker game. How do you closely estimate your chances? It's a matter of observing what goes on around you and determining how likely events are to affect you. Easier said than done, right? Right! And you will never get anywhere near perfect when it comes to estimating your chances. But the closer you come, the more likely you are to conquer opponents at life and at poker.
But here's what you need to understand. If you don't know how to estimate chances or you don't have any information at all about a situation, then that event appears to be an even money situation. Experience tells us that some things are not even money. If you leap from a twenty-story building, you probably won't land safely. But, wait! You might land safely. You might have your fall broken by a giant pile of feather pillows. Of course, you and I know it's not an even-money proposition that this will happen. We know that leap probably isn't going to end pretty.
But here's what you need to understand. If you don't know how to estimate chances or you don't have any information at all about a situation, then that event appears to be an even money situation. Experience tells us that some things are not even money. If you leap from a twenty-story building, you probably won't land safely. But, wait! You might land safely. You might have your fall broken by a giant pile of feather pillows. Of course, you and I know it's not an even-money proposition that this will happen. We know that leap probably isn't going to end pretty.























